Day One Takeaways for the NBA Playoffs

I had meant to publish an article last night previewing the eight first-round matchups, but that escaped me. I doubt many people are reading this, so when I post my predictions for the rest of the round, I doubt being a day late will harm their validity. With that ---- ---- ---- ----

#6 Utah Jazz @ #3 Denver Nuggets 

Consider me one of the many who wrote off the Jazz once max-contract PG Mike Conley left the NBA bubble to be at the birth of his child, effectively benching him for his team's series against the Nuggets. But for four quarters, the Jazz looked like they would win this game - even without him. 

It wasn't until overtime where the Nuggets stepped on the gas and made what felt like every shot they threw up. And, for the record, I didn't feel like the Nuggets really deserved to win this game. They might have lost if it wasn't for an eight-second violation - one of Donovan Mitchell's only errors in an otherwise headline worthy performance. 

Without Conley, the Jazz relied on former Denver Nugget guard Emmanuel Mudiay to take on a significant role supporting Mitchell. Additionally, Joe Ingles got called on to start at shooting guard, which allowed Mitchell to run the court in Conley's stead. It is easy to say that Mitchell's floor running is more emphatic - he had scored over 50 points before overtime - and it's also easy to say that the Nuggets got away with one. 

For a team that played with such casual dominance, the Nuggets struggled to control this game. For a team that is considered markedly better, one that is healthy and facing a Jazz crew missing their highest-paid player, they should have continued to dominate. They moved the ball well enough to get the open look, but were out-rebounded on both ends of the floor and downright out-hustled. However, they shot the ball much better than the Jazz (the Nuggets' 3PT% was excellent) which kept them in it and they kept making shots in the extra period. Despite their line-up missing Bol Bol and a sense that coach Michael Malone approached this game more conservatively than he had others in the Orlando NBA bubble, his Nuggets pulled out game one the way many pundits expected. 

Going into the game, my money was on the Nuggets sweeping. Having seen this game, it's hard to say that the Jazz won't make the series just as interesting as this afternoon's back-and-forth. 

#7 Brooklyn Nets @ #2 Toronto Raptors 

I'm a hometown fan, so covering the Raptors will always be a challenge. Since the season's start, I've underestimated the team in terms of their actual success, but somehow overestimated their success by saying they would finish fourth (or so) in the east and play well enough to make another NBA Eastern Conference Finals series (before losing to whomever they faced). 

Today, they are second in the east and look more dynamic than they did when they began the playoffs last year, en route to their NBA Championship, having scored 134 points today: the most a Raptors team has ever scored in a playoff game. 

Fred Van Vleet will make between 30 and 40 million dollars per year, if not max-contract money, when he negotiates a new deal this post-season. He's earned it with his reliable strong scoring and proved his consistency with it once again here. Just like Donovan Mitchell, he's proved his worth isn't like a part you can easily replace; if the Raptors make a push to the finals this year he's proven his vitality. Serge Ibaka played perfectly off the bench. I could prattle on endlessly about how the Toronto Raptors look more synchronized than any other basketball team today and remark on what each Raptors does well. Today, they led by almost 30 points at half-time and finished the game up 16 on the Nets. Those numbers speak volumes on a day where one game went into overtime and the other two were decided by less than three baskets.

I predicted the Nets to win a game in this series - if only for Caris LaVert's play - but after today, the Raptors look like they're going to exceed my expectations once again and sweep their way into round two.

#6 Philadelphia 76ers @ #3 Boston Celtics

Considering I only tuned in for the first quarter, I can't say my insight is worthwhile on game one. I'd say look elsewhere for that. 

However, this 76ers team looks good without Ben Simmons. If Joel Embiid can stay healthy, it will be a worthwhile series to follow. He could lead every game played in points, rebounds and blocked shots and with that, his team to the second-round. But the combination of Jayson Tatum (who Sixers fans must hate for being so good on Boston and having drafted Fultz instead), Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker are all impact players who play their roles at elite levels and very well could win the entire eastern conference, so I wouldn't bet on the process. 

That said, this is a Sixers team that must be tired of disappointing the Philly faithful year-after-year, so expect some kind of push and a win or two from the red, white and blue. If Gordon Hayward's viability is once again questioned by injury, then Embiid and co. have a little hope to slow down the Celtics' scoring and stay competitive throughout seven games.

#7 Dallas Mavericks @ #2 Los Angeles Clippers

This was a tale of three games. 

The first - the Dallas Mavericks could not make a shot and looked horrendous. The score got as out of hand as 18-2 for the Clippers. Then, the second half started, and the Clippers went about four minutes without scoring a bucket. Here's where Dallas looked like they might actually win the game - but around this time, All-Star forward Kristaps Porzingis was ejected after receiving his second technical foul.

Earlier on in the contest, Porzingis received a technical foul for admonishing the refs after being called for a blocking foul. When he got tangled up with Zubac in the third quarter,a shoving match ensued. LeBron James tweeted "Man that was bogus as hell, man!!!"

Without Porzingis, a loss to the Clippers was inevitable. Even though Luka Doncic and the Mavs put on an admirable show, a few poor shot selections from Seth Curry (should've passed it with 2-something left) and Tim Hardaway Jr. late in the game brought about the expected. Both guards made key fourth quarter shots to keep the Mavs close, but Doncic was the real highlight of this game. Well, Doncic... and the ease with which Kawhi Leonard and Paul George kept the Clippers ahead. Those guys are fucking cold. 

I expected the Mavericks to hand a couple of losses to the L.A. Clippers throughout the series, and they very well may with Porzingis on the court for more than 20 minutes next game, but damn, Paul George looks unstoppable. If the rest of the series plays out in kind, basketball analysts will be quick to revise their opinion of George as not-clutch in playoff games, or steadfast in saying he hasn't proven otherwise until he wins a championship. Either way, after today I'd say both he and Doncic are two of the top players you'd want on any playoff-contending team going forward.


THE SHORT: 

Nuggets in 4 games over the Utah Jazz (looking more like they could lose the series, but call it 7)
Raptors in 5 games over the Brooklyn Nets (looking more like a sweep)
Celtics in 6 games over the Philadelphia 76ers (looking more like in 5)
Clippers in 6 games over the Dallas Mavericks (looking more like in 5)